Indeed. LIKE LIKE LIKE LIKE!!!! Praying for a better end than Iran, and still, a better end in Iran.
Posted by: Zara | Jan 28, 2011 2:16:59 PM
I don't think that there are too many fans of the current government in Egypt. However, if the government falls as a result of the protests, what replaces it might resemble the Islamic Republic of Iran, which would be even worse. So I hope that what actually happens is that the protests will force evolution, rather than revolution.
I think the army may sacrifice Mubarak in order to maintain their dominance of Egypt. This will be followed by significant political opening. I dont think there will be either an Islamist takeover or a total collapse. But if they rely only on tanks and dont sacrifice Mubarak soon, then things will go from bad to worse…
Posted by: omar | Jan 28, 2011 5:38:37 PM
Shutting down the internet- too late. Bringing in the tanks- too much, and yet too little. Such a gesture has not instilled fear in the Egyptian people, and will only fan the flames of democratic reform- or revolution.
Posted by: Louise Gordon | Jan 28, 2011 8:02:02 PM
Jordan, Syria, WOW!! Did anyone predict this? Im curious because I certainly go through my phases of being clueless.... Someone say something about how Muslim Brotherhood is being portrayed here, esp. in conservative voices?
It was so good to see this just now. Thanks so much. There's so much news and analysis around - much of it excellent - and of course streaming live TV from Al Jazeera too - but this keeps it simple and to the point. YO!
Very interesting that those riots start only in countries as Tunisia and Egypt, where there are rudiments of democracy (as private newspaper and legal opposition)and Western influence and not in countries with no democracy at all as Syria and Iran.
Power to people of Egypt? Sounds very nice for an CNN/BBC newsreel, but in fact is a shift of power and the only organised and strong opposition party is the Muslim Brotherhood Al-Ikhwān a fundamentalist Islamic party that will transform the secular Egypt in a theocracy aligned with Iran. For fundamentalist Islamic parties democracy to arrival to the power is the same as the sandals that we took to the mosque; we leave this outside - said one of the leaders in a sincerity moment.
Under the new dictate, religious and enemy to the West, Egypt will receive less aid, less tourists will arrive (tourism is one the important sources of income also in Tunis), more people will learn Islamic teachings than technology and science, less investments will be made in a high risk country and the Egyptian people will be poorer than under Mubarak.
As we all know too well, the high prices of the basic food (what the people of Egypt is eating) are due to the global change of climate and by the fires and droughts of Russia, that put a ban on the export of cereals.
As we all know too well,the unemployment is global, same as in Spain, Ireland... and of course is not due to the decrepit tyranny of Mubarak...
The shift of power will not change those problems and will only enhance the poverty of the people of Egypt, so the traditional scapegoat will be found in Israel and of course USA. When sharks appeared in Sinai coastal water and attacked tourists , Israel and the Mossad were accused LOL http://www.jpost.com/MiddleEast/Article.aspx?ID=198286&R=R1
Due to the fact that the Sinai is in revolt and in the hands of the local Bedouins, the arms,drugs and people smugglers, some heavy arms may pass the Egyptian blockade of Gaza and fall in the hands of Hamas and other factions; so a major Israeli action may be triggered by a mega-terror act or by a rocket that will fall over a school or a mall.
In the long run we may expect also a major war conflict; The frontier Egypt-Israel is very long and is a peace frontier easy to penetrate and if tension between countries, incidents may ignite the war fire as when a berserk army Egyptian guard started to shoot and kill over the border the children from a girl school excursion.
However I hope, seeing the TV images of fraternisation between soldiers and proteters, that the army will took the power, stabilising Egypt and guarding the few traces of democracy that were present under Mubarak.
These events are dangerous through offering hope to vast swathes of disenfranchised and impoverished people. The reflexive paranoia, expressed by those who sympathise with the US/Israeli/Western European agenda in the region, that any government founded on popular support will necessarily be a theocracy based on Sharia law is scurrilous to the point of being out right racist. Turkey, as an example, has just extracted itself from under the boot of a military junta, elected a government with deep Islamic sympathies without threatening secular norms.
There are any number of criticism made by Mirel which are completely invalid. Yes, the poverty and unemployment will not go away just because the people have kicked out the dictators. But, it is better being just poor and unemployed with the hope that you may elect someone sympathetic to your needs than it is being poor and unemployed without hope and a dictators jackboot on your neck.
A major Israeli attack may be 'triggered' in response to an attack with large weapons smuggled into Gaza? Israel has regularly demonstrated that it does not need a pretext to carry out one of its mass-murderous acts of terrorism. The perceived racial variance is pretext enough for Israel to pursue its program of industrial scale ethnic cleansing.
The US, Israeli and Western European governments set themselves up as scapegoats by viewing Arabs as little more than impediments to exploiting the oil reserves of the Middle East. The bare faced cheek of the Arab people, founding their civilisations on Western oil reserves was the greatest imaginable crime committed against humanity, freedom and democracy. Western elites have a long violent history of intolerance to disobedient natives, supporting the likes of Mubarak is but one manifestation of that violence and intolerance.
The West demands and obedient 'stable' populace and they expect Mubarak and his security apparatus to deliver. Personally, I hope the West's expectations end in disappointment as Mubarak's efforts end in failure.
If the people of Egypt want a more theocratic government that has less ties with Israel - even to the point of breaking that tie - then that is their right. And yes, their is a good chance that the Muslim Brotherhood will have a much better representation and will cozy up to Hamas. You can't under-estimate the significance of Egypt falling - she is the dominant force in the Middle East politically and culturally. And when she falls, so too will those other puppet governments across the region - starting with Jordan and "Saudi" Arabia.
Posted by: anon | Jan 31, 2011 3:44:46 AM
@Mirel: By the way, the Brotherhood will never join forces with Iran - they are a very strict Sunni group. However, much to your regret, they will see to it that your country (read: Israel) will not hold a special place in their hearts. Remember Sadat? Maybe now your country would sweat a little more when you have a real threat rather than a bunch of rag-tag para-military men holed up in a small strip. You may remember 1967, but the Egyptians remember 1973.
Posted by: anon | Jan 31, 2011 3:52:17 AM
@Kensington said
"Israel has regularly demonstrated that it does not need a pretext to carry out one of its mass-murderous acts of terrorism. The perceived racial variance is pretext enough for Israel to pursue its program of industrial scale ethnic cleansing."
This is not only racial antisemitic vocabulary but also a lie:
After our withdrawal from Gaza, the attacks over Israel started with Hamas election; this forced us, the Israelis from all over the political parties, including even apart of Peace Now Movement (that I belong) to approve an army intervention in Gaza: Cast Lead Operation.
Some history:
in May 1994. Israeli forces withdrew from Gaza, leaving a new Palestinian National Authority (PNA) to administer and police the city.[12] The PNA, led by Yasser Arafat, chose Gaza as its first provincial headquarters. The newly established Palestinian National Council held its inaugural session in Gaza in March 1996. In 2005, Israel pulled out the troops occupying Gaza, along with thousands of Israelis who had settled in the territory...in 2008, nearly 3,000 rockets and mortars were fired at Israeli homes, schools, kindergartens, shops, clinics, factories and other civilian infrastructure. Israeli civilians were compelled to race to bomb shelters several times a day and lived in constant fear of where the next rockets would hit.
by late 2008 it reached as far as Israel's largest southern cities, including Ashkelon, Ashdod and Be'er Sheva, threatening another one million Israeli civilians - almost 15 percent of Israel's population. Had the onslaught of rocket attacks continued unabated, it was only a matter of time before a direct hit on a school, hospital or other public facility would have caused extensive loss of life http://www.mfa.gov.il/MFA/Terrorism-+Obstacle+to+Peace/Hamas+war+against+Israel/FAQ-Operation_in_Gaza-Legal_Aspects.htm#2
@anon said:" the Brotherhood will never join forces with Iran - they are a very strict Sunni group"
read this:
"Egypt has long been suspicious of the connection between the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood and Iran, based in large part on Iran's longstanding strong ties to Hamas -- an offshoot of the Brotherhood. The recent conflict in Gaza is likely to further arouse Cairo's suspicions. During the fighting, Iran was highly vocal in their support of Hamas, blasting the Egyptian government for its inaction. Hamas leader Khaled Mashal thanked Iran for its support of his organization, asserting that the "people of Gaza . . . have always appreciated the political and spiritual support of the Iranian leaders and nation." According to Iranian state television, Mashal reportedly said that "Iran has definitely played a big role in the victory of the people of Gaza and is a partner in that victory."
Iran has also forged stronger working relations with other Sunni extremists. According to the New York Times, Saudi authorities allege that the leader of "al-Qaeda in the Persian Gulf," Abdullah al-Qaraqi, lives and moves freely in Iran, along with more than a hundred Saudis working for him. The Treasury Department, in its recent enforcement action, announced that Saad bin Laden, son of Usama bin Laden, was arrested by Iranian authorities in early 2003 but that "[a]s of September 2008, it was possible that Saad bin Laden was no longer in Iranian custody." According to Director of National Intelligence Michael McConnell, Saad bin Laden is now most likely in Pakistan." http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/templateC05.php?CID=3014
@anon said:"You may remember 1967, but the Egyptians remember 1973."
Remember but wrongly, if 67 was an amazing victory, 73 war ended with a great victory for Israel: the war ended with encerclement of Egyptian army, crossing the Canal, 101km from Caire and deep into the Syrian territory, taking back Golan Heights and Hermon. http://www.mfa.gov.il/MFA/Facts+About+Israel/Israel+in+Maps/Yom+Kippur+War+Cease-Fire+Lines-+October+24-+1973.htm
I didn't believe first that my comments about Egypt will bring Israel( my country) in debate; however as the sharks from Sinai, any discussion will bring the old classical scapegoat "Jews" in the modern form "Israel".
The masses from Egypt are on the street now because they are poor, they have no food and no work, are crying for freedom and they will receive another dictator and no food as the food is expensive, they will receive no places to work as it is unemployment all over the world and the Egyptians have too many children in a rural society...but of course USA and the West and Israel are
the scapegoats...Mostly Israel, hahahaha...very funny...if it was not so sad...
I answered to some "affirmations" not for the authors benefit but mostly for some readers from faraway lands that maybe are less informed...
I think we can step back a little bit from textbook notions of democracy to another line: In every country where modern education and economics has made forays, the population wants some say in what goes on and economics demands some rationality in governance. The elite always has more influence than the poor, but even within the elite, there are notions of rule of law, political space, personal space, opportunity to move forward and so on. And the poor must have the means for bare survival and at least a vague notion that they can move forward on merit if they are really really good. Historical contingencies and other local factors make every case different and culture DOES matter, but its still possible to make some generalizations. One is that bull#### like the Mubarak dynasty is not going to last. Another is that extreme forms of Islamism are not going to make most people happy even if war with outsiders is not an issue. Another is that if you hook the elite on selling their role as "bulwark against Islamism", you will face accelerating demands for more money, you will foster terrible corruption and you will strengthen support for those very Islamists. In fact, it is an indication of the Islamists profoundly outdated and unproductive philosophical framework that they cannot take more advantage of this wonderful opportunity presented to them courtesy of the US taxpayer.
US policymakers who act as if the US has to determine what happens everywhere and simultaneously believe that there is very little the US can do to change things for the better, are wrong on both counts. In the Middle East, they are laboring under the very real burden that they really do want something (Israeli occupation) that almost everyone in that part of the world does not support, so their "democratic" options are limited. But even where the US does not necessarily have such a burden to carry (Pakistan, for example), hamhanded interference, reliance on outdated or irrelevant models (like the "modernizing army", "the whisky-drinking-moderate-Muslim", the Latin American model of using the army against undesirables at the cost of democracy, and so on) are not exactly working.
but, no matter, change is coming. With, without or in spite of US participation. And Israel should really make a fair peace from a position of strength while they have that chance. Its going to become so costly to support that occupation, even Uncle Sam may one day be unable to afford to carry that millstone around his neck...
Posted by: omar | Jan 31, 2011 12:29:49 PM
@omar
For the moment in the Arab world there are two forms of government:
-by military rule/ absolutism
based on military force
- by Islamisation, that is limiting the democratic rights even more that the military rule
The only democratic country, Lebanon. on the verge of civil war,is falling today in the hands of islamic fondamentalist terror organisation organization and party, Hesbollah
So there is no democracy in the Arab world and what we see now in Egypt is not a country that will became democratic, but a shift of power or the Islam fundamentalism or to a military rule.
Those changes and the anti-americanism block that may emergr, the declarations of Obama and his administration against the former ally Mubarak that in the Arab world of US allies (Jordan, Marrocco, Saudia) are seen as treason, will dinmmish the hold of West and USA in the Middle East, politic and mostly economic.
Israel will have great problems with an anti-american Egypt. The Peace frontier will have to be consolidated in event of war, Sinai will have to be put in control as heavy rockets may and heavy guns may pass to Gaza and the arms blockade to Gaza will have to be again under direct Israel-ONU control.
At the hour that you my friend Omar was posting your interesting point of view, two regiments of the Egyptian army received the Israel permission to enter in Sinai (a demilitarized zone); also three rockets Grad http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BM-21_Grad#Gaza_Strip
lanced from Gaz fallen in Israel, one over a marriage banquet. No victims...
@Mirel: So the protests were organized by poor Islamic radicals who have no money for food and no work? Amazing how they managed to communicate by Facebook, Twitter and SMS. And they seem to have shaved their beards off for the protests (granted, after 2 weeks of hanging out in Tahrir Square there are many more beards, grooming not a priority.) Have you any concern about justice for the Egyptian people? How about equal rights for Copts?
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Comments
Well, since there is no "Like" button I'll just have to spell it out: I LIKE!
Posted by: Margit | Jan 28, 2011 1:30:10 PM
That's what we need here, Margit.
Posted by: Elatia Harris | Jan 28, 2011 1:38:19 PM
Indeed. LIKE LIKE LIKE LIKE!!!! Praying for a better end than Iran, and still, a better end in Iran.
Posted by: Zara | Jan 28, 2011 2:16:59 PM
I don't think that there are too many fans of the current government in Egypt. However, if the government falls as a result of the protests, what replaces it might resemble the Islamic Republic of Iran, which would be even worse. So I hope that what actually happens is that the protests will force evolution, rather than revolution.
Posted by: Ian Kaplan | Jan 28, 2011 3:01:27 PM
Dearest Zara, me too! (I am not praying, technically speaking, but then I suspect nor are you!)
Posted by: Abbas Raza | Jan 28, 2011 3:12:00 PM
I wish them luck
Posted by: ThinkAfrica | Jan 28, 2011 3:52:47 PM
One more "like" button pressed dutifully. Didja all hear about Jordan?
Posted by: Ruchira | Jan 28, 2011 4:56:44 PM
I think the army may sacrifice Mubarak in order to maintain their dominance of Egypt. This will be followed by significant political opening. I dont think there will be either an Islamist takeover or a total collapse. But if they rely only on tanks and dont sacrifice Mubarak soon, then things will go from bad to worse…
Posted by: omar | Jan 28, 2011 5:38:37 PM
Shutting down the internet- too late. Bringing in the tanks- too much, and yet too little. Such a gesture has not instilled fear in the Egyptian people, and will only fan the flames of democratic reform- or revolution.
Posted by: ivandh | Jan 28, 2011 6:15:24 PM
Protesters in NY Area
Posted by: Louise Gordon | Jan 28, 2011 8:02:02 PM
Jordan, Syria, WOW!! Did anyone predict this? Im curious because I certainly go through my phases of being clueless.... Someone say something about how Muslim Brotherhood is being portrayed here, esp. in conservative voices?
Posted by: Zee | Jan 28, 2011 8:40:59 PM
It was so good to see this just now. Thanks so much. There's so much news and analysis around - much of it excellent - and of course streaming live TV from Al Jazeera too - but this keeps it simple and to the point. YO!
Posted by: oliviab | Jan 29, 2011 4:09:51 AM
Very interesting that those riots start only in countries as Tunisia and Egypt, where there are rudiments of democracy (as private newspaper and legal opposition)and Western influence and not in countries with no democracy at all as Syria and Iran.
Power to people of Egypt? Sounds very nice for an CNN/BBC newsreel, but in fact is a shift of power and the only organised and strong opposition party is the Muslim Brotherhood Al-Ikhwān a fundamentalist Islamic party that will transform the secular Egypt in a theocracy aligned with Iran. For fundamentalist Islamic parties democracy to arrival to the power is the same as the sandals that we took to the mosque; we leave this outside - said one of the leaders in a sincerity moment.
Under the new dictate, religious and enemy to the West, Egypt will receive less aid, less tourists will arrive (tourism is one the important sources of income also in Tunis), more people will learn Islamic teachings than technology and science, less investments will be made in a high risk country and the Egyptian people will be poorer than under Mubarak.
As we all know too well, the high prices of the basic food (what the people of Egypt is eating) are due to the global change of climate and by the fires and droughts of Russia, that put a ban on the export of cereals.
As we all know too well,the unemployment is global, same as in Spain, Ireland... and of course is not due to the decrepit tyranny of Mubarak...
The shift of power will not change those problems and will only enhance the poverty of the people of Egypt, so the traditional scapegoat will be found in Israel and of course USA. When sharks appeared in Sinai coastal water and attacked tourists , Israel and the Mossad were accused LOL
http://www.jpost.com/MiddleEast/Article.aspx?ID=198286&R=R1
Due to the fact that the Sinai is in revolt and in the hands of the local Bedouins, the arms,drugs and people smugglers, some heavy arms may pass the Egyptian blockade of Gaza and fall in the hands of Hamas and other factions; so a major Israeli action may be triggered by a mega-terror act or by a rocket that will fall over a school or a mall.
In the long run we may expect also a major war conflict; The frontier Egypt-Israel is very long and is a peace frontier easy to penetrate and if tension between countries, incidents may ignite the war fire as when a berserk army Egyptian guard started to shoot and kill over the border the children from a girl school excursion.
However I hope, seeing the TV images of fraternisation between soldiers and proteters, that the army will took the power, stabilising Egypt and guarding the few traces of democracy that were present under Mubarak.
Posted by: Mirel | Jan 30, 2011 3:28:06 AM
These events are dangerous through offering hope to vast swathes of disenfranchised and impoverished people. The reflexive paranoia, expressed by those who sympathise with the US/Israeli/Western European agenda in the region, that any government founded on popular support will necessarily be a theocracy based on Sharia law is scurrilous to the point of being out right racist. Turkey, as an example, has just extracted itself from under the boot of a military junta, elected a government with deep Islamic sympathies without threatening secular norms.
There are any number of criticism made by Mirel which are completely invalid. Yes, the poverty and unemployment will not go away just because the people have kicked out the dictators. But, it is better being just poor and unemployed with the hope that you may elect someone sympathetic to your needs than it is being poor and unemployed without hope and a dictators jackboot on your neck.
A major Israeli attack may be 'triggered' in response to an attack with large weapons smuggled into Gaza? Israel has regularly demonstrated that it does not need a pretext to carry out one of its mass-murderous acts of terrorism. The perceived racial variance is pretext enough for Israel to pursue its program of industrial scale ethnic cleansing.
The US, Israeli and Western European governments set themselves up as scapegoats by viewing Arabs as little more than impediments to exploiting the oil reserves of the Middle East. The bare faced cheek of the Arab people, founding their civilisations on Western oil reserves was the greatest imaginable crime committed against humanity, freedom and democracy. Western elites have a long violent history of intolerance to disobedient natives, supporting the likes of Mubarak is but one manifestation of that violence and intolerance.
The West demands and obedient 'stable' populace and they expect Mubarak and his security apparatus to deliver. Personally, I hope the West's expectations end in disappointment as Mubarak's efforts end in failure.
Posted by: Andrew Kensington | Jan 30, 2011 11:58:13 PM
If the people of Egypt want a more theocratic government that has less ties with Israel - even to the point of breaking that tie - then that is their right. And yes, their is a good chance that the Muslim Brotherhood will have a much better representation and will cozy up to Hamas. You can't under-estimate the significance of Egypt falling - she is the dominant force in the Middle East politically and culturally. And when she falls, so too will those other puppet governments across the region - starting with Jordan and "Saudi" Arabia.
Posted by: anon | Jan 31, 2011 3:44:46 AM
@Mirel: By the way, the Brotherhood will never join forces with Iran - they are a very strict Sunni group. However, much to your regret, they will see to it that your country (read: Israel) will not hold a special place in their hearts. Remember Sadat? Maybe now your country would sweat a little more when you have a real threat rather than a bunch of rag-tag para-military men holed up in a small strip. You may remember 1967, but the Egyptians remember 1973.
Posted by: anon | Jan 31, 2011 3:52:17 AM
@Kensington said
"Israel has regularly demonstrated that it does not need a pretext to carry out one of its mass-murderous acts of terrorism. The perceived racial variance is pretext enough for Israel to pursue its program of industrial scale ethnic cleansing."
This is not only racial antisemitic vocabulary but also a lie:
After our withdrawal from Gaza, the attacks over Israel started with Hamas election; this forced us, the Israelis from all over the political parties, including even apart of Peace Now Movement (that I belong) to approve an army intervention in Gaza: Cast Lead Operation.
Some history:
in May 1994. Israeli forces withdrew from Gaza, leaving a new Palestinian National Authority (PNA) to administer and police the city.[12] The PNA, led by Yasser Arafat, chose Gaza as its first provincial headquarters. The newly established Palestinian National Council held its inaugural session in Gaza in March 1996. In 2005, Israel pulled out the troops occupying Gaza, along with thousands of Israelis who had settled in the territory...in 2008, nearly 3,000 rockets and mortars were fired at Israeli homes, schools, kindergartens, shops, clinics, factories and other civilian infrastructure. Israeli civilians were compelled to race to bomb shelters several times a day and lived in constant fear of where the next rockets would hit.
by late 2008 it reached as far as Israel's largest southern cities, including Ashkelon, Ashdod and Be'er Sheva, threatening another one million Israeli civilians - almost 15 percent of Israel's population. Had the onslaught of rocket attacks continued unabated, it was only a matter of time before a direct hit on a school, hospital or other public facility would have caused extensive loss of life
http://www.mfa.gov.il/MFA/Terrorism-+Obstacle+to+Peace/Hamas+war+against+Israel/FAQ-Operation_in_Gaza-Legal_Aspects.htm#2
@anon said:" the Brotherhood will never join forces with Iran - they are a very strict Sunni group"
read this:
"Egypt has long been suspicious of the connection between the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood and Iran, based in large part on Iran's longstanding strong ties to Hamas -- an offshoot of the Brotherhood. The recent conflict in Gaza is likely to further arouse Cairo's suspicions. During the fighting, Iran was highly vocal in their support of Hamas, blasting the Egyptian government for its inaction. Hamas leader Khaled Mashal thanked Iran for its support of his organization, asserting that the "people of Gaza . . . have always appreciated the political and spiritual support of the Iranian leaders and nation." According to Iranian state television, Mashal reportedly said that "Iran has definitely played a big role in the victory of the people of Gaza and is a partner in that victory."
Iran has also forged stronger working relations with other Sunni extremists. According to the New York Times, Saudi authorities allege that the leader of "al-Qaeda in the Persian Gulf," Abdullah al-Qaraqi, lives and moves freely in Iran, along with more than a hundred Saudis working for him. The Treasury Department, in its recent enforcement action, announced that Saad bin Laden, son of Usama bin Laden, was arrested by Iranian authorities in early 2003 but that "[a]s of September 2008, it was possible that Saad bin Laden was no longer in Iranian custody." According to Director of National Intelligence Michael McConnell, Saad bin Laden is now most likely in Pakistan."
http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/templateC05.php?CID=3014
@anon said:"You may remember 1967, but the Egyptians remember 1973."
Remember but wrongly, if 67 was an amazing victory, 73 war ended with a great victory for Israel: the war ended with encerclement of Egyptian army, crossing the Canal, 101km from Caire and deep into the Syrian territory, taking back Golan Heights and Hermon.
http://www.mfa.gov.il/MFA/Facts+About+Israel/Israel+in+Maps/Yom+Kippur+War+Cease-Fire+Lines-+October+24-+1973.htm
I didn't believe first that my comments about Egypt will bring Israel( my country) in debate; however as the sharks from Sinai, any discussion will bring the old classical scapegoat "Jews" in the modern form "Israel".
The masses from Egypt are on the street now because they are poor, they have no food and no work, are crying for freedom and they will receive another dictator and no food as the food is expensive, they will receive no places to work as it is unemployment all over the world and the Egyptians have too many children in a rural society...but of course USA and the West and Israel are
the scapegoats...Mostly Israel, hahahaha...very funny...if it was not so sad...
I answered to some "affirmations" not for the authors benefit but mostly for some readers from faraway lands that maybe are less informed...
Posted by: Mirel | Jan 31, 2011 11:19:06 AM
I think we can step back a little bit from textbook notions of democracy to another line: In every country where modern education and economics has made forays, the population wants some say in what goes on and economics demands some rationality in governance. The elite always has more influence than the poor, but even within the elite, there are notions of rule of law, political space, personal space, opportunity to move forward and so on. And the poor must have the means for bare survival and at least a vague notion that they can move forward on merit if they are really really good. Historical contingencies and other local factors make every case different and culture DOES matter, but its still possible to make some generalizations. One is that bull#### like the Mubarak dynasty is not going to last. Another is that extreme forms of Islamism are not going to make most people happy even if war with outsiders is not an issue. Another is that if you hook the elite on selling their role as "bulwark against Islamism", you will face accelerating demands for more money, you will foster terrible corruption and you will strengthen support for those very Islamists. In fact, it is an indication of the Islamists profoundly outdated and unproductive philosophical framework that they cannot take more advantage of this wonderful opportunity presented to them courtesy of the US taxpayer.
US policymakers who act as if the US has to determine what happens everywhere and simultaneously believe that there is very little the US can do to change things for the better, are wrong on both counts. In the Middle East, they are laboring under the very real burden that they really do want something (Israeli occupation) that almost everyone in that part of the world does not support, so their "democratic" options are limited. But even where the US does not necessarily have such a burden to carry (Pakistan, for example), hamhanded interference, reliance on outdated or irrelevant models (like the "modernizing army", "the whisky-drinking-moderate-Muslim", the Latin American model of using the army against undesirables at the cost of democracy, and so on) are not exactly working.
but, no matter, change is coming. With, without or in spite of US participation. And Israel should really make a fair peace from a position of strength while they have that chance. Its going to become so costly to support that occupation, even Uncle Sam may one day be unable to afford to carry that millstone around his neck...
Posted by: omar | Jan 31, 2011 12:29:49 PM
@omar
For the moment in the Arab world there are two forms of government:
-by military rule/ absolutism
based on military force
- by Islamisation, that is limiting the democratic rights even more that the military rule
The only democratic country, Lebanon. on the verge of civil war,is falling today in the hands of islamic fondamentalist terror organisation organization and party, Hesbollah
So there is no democracy in the Arab world and what we see now in Egypt is not a country that will became democratic, but a shift of power or the Islam fundamentalism or to a military rule.
Those changes and the anti-americanism block that may emergr, the declarations of Obama and his administration against the former ally Mubarak that in the Arab world of US allies (Jordan, Marrocco, Saudia) are seen as treason, will dinmmish the hold of West and USA in the Middle East, politic and mostly economic.
Israel will have great problems with an anti-american Egypt. The Peace frontier will have to be consolidated in event of war, Sinai will have to be put in control as heavy rockets may and heavy guns may pass to Gaza and the arms blockade to Gaza will have to be again under direct Israel-ONU control.
At the hour that you my friend Omar was posting your interesting point of view, two regiments of the Egyptian army received the Israel permission to enter in Sinai (a demilitarized zone); also three rockets Grad
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BM-21_Grad#Gaza_Strip
lanced from Gaz fallen in Israel, one over a marriage banquet. No victims...
Posted by: Mirel | Feb 1, 2011 2:36:18 AM
@Mirel: So the protests were organized by poor Islamic radicals who have no money for food and no work? Amazing how they managed to communicate by Facebook, Twitter and SMS. And they seem to have shaved their beards off for the protests (granted, after 2 weeks of hanging out in Tahrir Square there are many more beards, grooming not a priority.) Have you any concern about justice for the Egyptian people? How about equal rights for Copts?
Posted by: Lisa | Feb 8, 2011 9:44:06 PM
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