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September 25, 2008

roubini getting it right

Even if the Treasury TARP plan is implemented fairly and efficiently the US will not avoid a severe U-shaped18-month recession and a severe financial and banking crisis: the recession train has already left the station in Q1 and the financial/banking crisis will be severe regardless of what the Treasury and the Fed do from now on. What a proper rescue plan can do is to avoid having the US experience a multi-year L-shaped recession and extreme financial crisis like the one that led to a decade long stagnation in Japan in the 1990s after the bursting of their real estate and equity bubbles.

Roubini at the RGE website here.

Roubini video here...
Via Andrew Sullivan.

Posted by Morgan Meis at 03:53 PM | Permalink

Comments

Roubini has been a clear voice through this farce.
Even mild mannered Krugman is coming around:

But there’s another possible explanation, which I find terrifyingly plausible: the plan came first, and all this stuff about price discovery is an after-the-fact rationalization, invented when people started asking questions.

iigri-

But I will say it. It’s clear by now that the Paulson plan, the $700 billion one that will cost $7 trillion, was not hastily put together. It had been on the shelf for a long time, waiting for the right time to hit the stage lights, much like a lurking killer influenza virus. The right time is the one, today, when the economy is at its weakest, when people are filled with fear about something they do not understand. They're not trying to save the economy, they're trying to liquidate it, and take it over.

Posted by: Dave Ranning | Sep 25, 2008 6:36:55 PM

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