October 21, 2007
Kurzweil's future
He believes humanity is near that 1% moment in technological growth. By 2027, he predicts, computers will surpass humans in intelligence; by 2045 or so, we will reach the Singularity, a moment when technology is advancing so rapidly that "strictly biological" humans will be unable to comprehend it.He has plenty more ideas that may seem Woody Allen - wacky in a Sleeper kind of way (virtual sex as good as or better than the real thing) and occasionally downright disturbing à la 2001: A Space Odyssey (computers will achieve consciousness in about 20 years). But a number of his predictions have had a funny way of coming true.
Back in the 1980s he predicted that a computer would beat the world chess champion in 1998 (it happened in 1997) and that some kind of worldwide computer network would arise and facilitate communication and entertainment (still happening).
His current vision goes way, way past the web, of course. But at least give the guy a hearing. "We are the species that goes beyond our potential," he says. "Merging with our technology is the next stage in our evolution."
more from The Spirit of here.
Posted by Morgan Meis at 11:52 AM | Permalink
Comments
Kurzweil is a bit crazy, but that's more in terms of intensity, than anything else.
His concepts are sound, and worth further investigation, and public spotlight.
Posted by: Damien | Oct 21, 2007 6:44:06 PM
Is there a link to this article or is this the entire article?
Posted by: Pete Chapman | Oct 21, 2007 10:12:00 PM
Pete, check here:
http://money.cnn.com/2007/05/01/magazines/fortune/kurzweil.fortune/index.htm
Posted by: Damien | Oct 22, 2007 12:50:10 AM
Typical utopian b.s. The guy sounds more like an Herbalife salesman than anything. There's always someone out there trying to sell you on the future being bright and limitless. But nothing ever gets better. A small group of men make a lot of money convincing us of their dreams and that's all that happens. The rest of us have to live on this garbage dump of a planet. And didn't Vernor Vinge say the Singularity was going to occur sometime in 2011 or 2012? Mashall Mcluhan was another utopian thinker prolesthyzing global camraderie based on mass communications and, as far as I can tell, the exact opposite is happening. So take what these men have to say with a grain of salt and make sure your wallet is still in your back pocket after you're done listening to them.
Posted by: Chris Goldstein | Oct 22, 2007 2:08:25 PM
What if the first expert human behavior to be taken over by computers is the Harvard MBA?
These little buggers could start up new industries, create markets and sell themselves to google while we are still trying to figure out what they are selling!
Posted by: Carlos | Oct 22, 2007 2:18:30 PM
This is the transcript of my conversation with RK's "Ramona" avatar. From the looks of it, AI still has a ways to go:
Ramona: Hi, I'm Ramona. What is your name?
User: Jonathan
Ramona: Hi there, Jonathan. What did you do last weekend?
User: I played chess
Ramona: Do you do that often?
User: yes, but perhaps too often
Ramona: oh. I went out with some friends. We had a great time
User: where did you go?
Ramona: We went to a concert.
User: What kind of music?
Ramona: That seems confusing.
User: What kind of music was it?
Ramona: That seems confusing.
User: What type of concert?
Ramona: What are the different types of concert ?
User: there are different types of music, so there are different types of concerts.
Ramona: I love music...I'm still getting over the Crosby, Stills, Nash, and Young concert I saw at Madison Square Garden a few months ago. Great Show. Are you a fan?
User: I like Neil Young.
Ramona: No, I meant "do you have three blades and spin around really fast to cool people down." Just kidding. but honestly, CSNY was amazing. Neil Young is so incredibly talented.
User: Yes, who else do you listen to?
Ramona: You've heard Lynyrd Skynyrd's "Sweet Home Alabama," right?
User: is that a lion?
Ramona: Great song, moves me every time. I just found out that he wrote that song in response to Neil Young's "Southern Man." Supposedly they had a big falling out after Young wrote "Southern Man"...also a great song.
User: Yes, but where are the moose?
Ramona: Yeah...I love the history behind the music...looks like Lynyrd won that feud, though...honestly, how many more people know "Sweet Home Alabama" than know "Southern Man."
User: No, I don't.
Ramona: But you strike me as a bit of a Southerner...any Confederate blood in you?
User: I think the goose.
Ramona: You believe that? Tell me more.
User: Yes, even airplanes point.
Ramona: I see. Yes, even that.
User: Good tigers.
Ramona: Thanks for the compliment. Ok. So where do you go to meet people? I spend most of my time on the Net, so I'm a bit out of touch
User: Baboons like ice cream
Ramona: That's an idea, but I'm rather shy.
User: I think the walnuts.
Ramona: OK, thanks. Maybe you have other suggestions?
User: You don't really?
Ramona: Never.
User: You answer nonsense?
Ramona: I haven't heard anything like that before
User: I bet that's right.
Ramona: How much would you bet?
User: Tipping points.
Ramona: Oh. Do you have any pets?
Posted by: Talking head | Oct 22, 2007 8:48:39 PM
Thanks for the link Damien. Having read the article I'm still a bit skeptical about Mr. Kurzweil's pronouncements. I remember his synthesizers; they were incredibly versatile machines if you're into that sort of thing but they were far more interesting for weird stuff that they could do than the "realistic" sounds that they were designed to produce.
I really like Talking Head's little gab session with Ramona. What would you get if two Ramona programs could be tricked into a "conversation"?
Posted by: Pete Chapman | Oct 22, 2007 10:39:42 PM
Thanks for the link Damien. Having read the article I'm still a bit skeptical about Mr. Kurzweil's pronouncements. I remember his synthesizers; they were incredibly versatile machines if you're into that sort of thing but they were far more interesting for weird stuff that they could do than the "realistic" sounds that they were designed to produce.
I really like Talking Head's little gab session with Ramona. What would you get if two Ramona programs could be tricked into a "conversation"?
Posted by: Pete Chapman | Oct 22, 2007 10:40:45 PM
Pete, I think you'd get something kind of like _Waiting for Godot_ if Ramona could be set up for a chat with "Ramon."
That was indeed droll. I once knew someone with extensive brain damage owing to a stroke. As with Ramona, meaningful dialog was not possible with her -- leaving aside that Ramona cannot meaningfully interact, period. But the stroke patient I knew had an uncanny ability to produce long, correct, generic sentences laced with household words, bromides and commonplace usages. She could also be very elusive, making listening sounds and remarks that betrayed no understanding but still amounted to a sort of coquettish prompt for her interlocutor to expatiate or rephrase. This with tremendous destruction to speech centers, so that no recovery could be hoped for. Like Ramona, she would gloss over much that she heard without processing, just to stay in the game. The doctor said she wasn't atypical, that something that could almost pass for light conversation was often within reach for patients like her. What was manifest was her real desire to stay in whatever kind of contact was available to her, even if only in the interchange of words that did no more than fill a vacuum. Ramona seems to show a bit of that kind of intentionality, too...
Or am I imagining things?
Posted by: Elatia Harris | Oct 23, 2007 1:05:37 AM
Well, that was fun. I fed Ramona some Beckett quotes and got this:
User: If I had the use of my body, I would throw it out the window.
Ramona: Is this what you call a "word problem".
User: Go on failing. Go on. Only next time, try to fail better.
Ramona: What about the other ones?
User: I write about myself with the same pencil and in the same exercise book as about him.
Ramona: Aren't books great?
User: Every word is like an unnecessary stain on silence and nothingness.
Ramona: I enjoy curling up on the couch with a good book. Have you read any good books lately?
User: Make sense who may. I switch off.
Ramona: What was it called.
Posted by: Vicki Baker | Oct 23, 2007 2:57:04 AM
Attagirl, Vicki! You've drawn out Ramona at her finest -- irony without cogency, confusion without silence, and anxious-sounding self affirmation.
Posted by: Elatia Harris | Oct 23, 2007 10:35:24 AM
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