November 24, 2005
How a virus can morph into a killer
From MSNBC:
The 1918 Spanish flu killed at least 20 million people around the globe. Fears of a similar pandemic have health officials concerned the death toll could be much higher in a modern outbreak, which researchers say is very likely if the current deadly bird flu morphs into a strain that can be transmitted by humans. Travel between countries has become vastly more frequent and quicker, which would hasten the spread of a highly contagious and lethal virus. In the last of a three-part series, LiveScience examines how a virus jumps from birds to humans and reaches pandemic proportions.
More here.
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Comments
Ewald and other proponents of Darwinian medicine point out that this virus is so virulent that it is unlikely that it will evolve in its current level of virulence to a form that would be both readily transimissible in humans and as deadly as it is now. A virus that kills almost everyone who catches it very quickly, like ebola, cannot spread very far. It is like an animal that eats its entire food supply and dies before it reproduces. In order for a virus to spread very widely it has to evolve in the direction of less virulence.
this does not mean that we should not prepare for a massive influenza epidemic. but it does mean that the level of this preparation may need to be adjusted to fit state-of-the-art thinking in evolution.
thomas
Posted by: Thomas | Nov 24, 2005 2:29:05 PM
In general the more virulent an organism is, the more contagious it must be. Otherwise it will kill its host before it has infected another. Less virulent organisms, like TB and HIV are not particularly contagious without close and/or intimate contact.
Evolutionary theory does not require that any particular change be beneficial in either the short or long run. The Spanish flu is one of many examples. The strain may not have been very successful over time, but that did not stop it from being extremely damaging to the human population.
Posted by: m | Nov 24, 2005 3:30:08 PM
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